Prioritizing Environmental Health Risks in the UAE

This article presents the results of a comparative environmental risk‐ranking exercise that was conducted in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to inform a strategic planning process led by the Environment Agency‐Abu Dhabi (EAD). It represents the first national‐level application of a deliberative method for comparative risk ranking first published in this journal. The deliberative method involves a five‐stage process that includes quantitative risk assessment by experts and deliberations by groups of stakeholders. The project reported in this article considered 14 categories of environmental risks to health identified through discussions with EAD staff: ambient and indoor air pollution; drinking water contamination; coastal water pollution; soil and groundwater contamination; contamination of fruits, vegetables, and seafood; ambient noise; stratospheric ozone depletion; electromagnetic fields from power lines; health impacts from climate change; and exposure to hazardous substances in industrial, construction, and agricultural work environments. Results from workshops involving 73 stakeholders who met in five separate groups to rank these risks individually and collaboratively indicated strong consensus that outdoor and indoor air pollution are the highest priorities in the UAE. Each of the five groups rated these as being among the highest risks. All groups rated soil and groundwater contamination as being among the lowest risks. In surveys administered after the ranking exercises, participants indicated that the results of the process represented their concerns and approved of using the ranking results to inform policy decisions. The results ultimately shaped a strategic plan that is now being implemented.     

基于突变理论的企业员工反生产行为研究

员工反生产行为已经成为影响企业绩效、阻碍企业发展的关键因素之一。在分析反生产行为各影响因素的基础上,结合经典的员工反生产行为形成机制模型,从突变理论的全新视角,在考虑人的心理随机扰动前提下构建员工反生产行为随机尖点突变模型。运用突变模型解释员工心理行为在个体情绪和情境压力作用下的变化过程,并基于随机突变理论和统计学方法对模型进行验证,最后基于模型的数理分析提出员工反生产行为的避免机制和控制策略。研究结果表明,突变模型对员工反生产行为的解释优于传统的线性模型和非线性模型;完善的组织制度和员工关怀是有效的反生产行为避免机制,在控制负面行为危害上,心理疏导要比改善组织情境更有效率;在同样的情境压力下,心理状态的差异会造成截然不同的员工行为,企业能通过调节心理阈值点明显降低极端反生产行为出现的概率;员工心理感知的恢复具有滞后性,企业要在基本应急补救措施上进行更多的努力。     

2009年上半年货币过多投放会导致2010年通货膨胀吗?

2009年以来,我国货币供应量增幅快速回升,银行大规模进行信贷投放,这不仅使得市场流动性显著增强,而且也为未来通胀预期增加了不确定性。本文利用1997-2009年CPI环比、货币供应量增量及人民币贷款增量三个指标月度数据构建向量自回归模型,分析结果显示:(1)通货膨胀对自身冲击影响最为敏感;(2)短期内货币供应量对通货膨胀影响并不明显,但较长期内(一般为7个月)货币供应量增量的变化对通货膨胀产生重大影响;(3)贷款对通货膨胀的作用较小,我国通货膨胀对金融机构贷款变动并不敏感;(4)2010年物价水平将逐步上升,但不会出现较高通货膨胀。     

大规模同质不良资产组合回收率定价研究

处置不良资产是我国金融业改革和发展的重要问题,大规模批量处置不良贷款是处置不良资产的首选方法之一.不良贷款组合的回收率分布,是不良贷款组合定价的基础.针对不良贷款回收率的双峰分布特性,将不良贷款分为低峰回收贷款和高峰回收贷款,证明了不良贷款组合的回收率收敛于低峰回收率和高峰回收率的条件期望之和.基于信用风险结构模型,进一步证明了高峰回收率条件期望的正态逆变换与低峰回收比率的正态逆变换之间存在线性关系.由于对低峰回收贷款易于判断,很容易估计低峰回收比率,因而可以通过线性回归估计出高峰回收率条件期望,这样就给出了不良贷款组合的整体回收率估计模型.基于这一模型,还给出了估计不良贷款回收率的分位数的计算方法,该方法实际上是VaR方法的推广.     

The role of leadership in shared mental model convergence and team performance improvement: An agent-based computational model

Research in shared mental models has immeasurably aided our understanding of effective teamwork and taskwork. However, little research has focused on the role that leaders play, if any, in influencing, developing and/or fostering shared mental models and thereby improving team performance. We developed an agent-based computational model based on McComb's theory of three-phase mental model development, where agents repeatedly share individual opinions (orientation phase), evaluate and respond to the opinions expressed by others (differentiation phase), and modify their understanding of the team based on the responses (integration phase). Leadership and team properties are represented in three experimental parameters: social network structure, heterogeneity of agents' domains of expertise, and level of their mutual interest. Participative leadership is represented by a fully connected network, while Leader–Member eXchange (LMX) is represented by a fully connected network of in-group members and several out-group members connected only to the leader. Our simulation results show that, in general, participative leadership promotes mental model convergence better than LMX. In the meantime, the team performance improvement is achieved by participative leadership only when members have both heterogeneous domains of expertise and strong mutual interest. In all other conditions, participative leadership causes the worst degradation of team performance through team development processes, while LMX is the best to minimize such team degradation. Implications and suggestions for future research are provided.     

The canadian traveller problem and its competitive analysis

From the online point of view, we study the Canadian Traveller Problem (CTP), in which the traveller knows in advance the structure of the graph and the costs of all edges. However, some edges may fail and the traveller only observes that upon reaching an adjacent vertex of the blocked edge. The goal is to find the least-cost route from the source O to the destination D, more precisely, to find an adaptive strategy minimizing the competitive ratio, which compares the performance of this strategy with that of a hypothetical offline algorithm that knows the entire topology in advance. In this paper, we present two adaptive strategies—a greedy or myopic strategy and a comparison strategy combining the greedy strategy and the reposition strategy in which the traveller backtracks to the source every time when he/she sees a failed edge. We prove tight competitive ratios of 2 ^k+1−1 and 2k+1 respectively for the two strategies, where k is the number of failed edges in the graph. Finally, we propose an explanation of why the greedy strategy and the comparison strategy are usually preferred by drivers in an urban traffic environment, based on an argument related to the length of the second-shortest path in a grid graph. We would like to acknowledge the support from NSF of China (No. 70525004, No. 70121001 and No. 60736027), and the support from K.C. Wong Education Foundation, Hong Kong.     

我国银行业技术效率演进的实证分析

针对金融业自由化推进的过程中,中国银行业采取的逐步放宽外资银行的市场准入、降低不良货款率、加强银行资本充足率管理等改革政策,对其技术效率的影响问题,选取了1997～2004年期间15家国有及股份制商业银行,首先运用最高前沿DEA计算出样本区间内样本银行的技术效率面板数据,然后随机生产前沿函数SFA对获得的技术效率面板数据进行分析.分析结果显示:政府对资本充足率的管制政策对银行业效率起到负作用;降低不良货款率的政策发挥了提高银行业技术效率的功效;外资银行的进入对中国银行业的技术溢出正效应抵消了中国金融业市场分配的负效应.分析结果还显示国有和股份制商业银行分别以年7.70%、4.80%速率递增.     

区域创新能力及其制约因素解析——基于1997～2007省际面板数据检验

根据我国各省、自治区、直辖市1997～2007年的创新活动面板数据,以专利的授权数量作为创新产出的指标,实证检验区域创新环境对区域创新能力的影响,并解释我国区域创新能力存在差异的原因.实证结果表明:中国30个省(区、市)创新绩效存在显著差异,这种现象的存在不仅是由于各地区研发人员和研发费用的投入差异,也是由于各地区以FDI、市场化程度、累积知识存量和知识流动能力等因素组成的创新环境的差异.在此基础上,提出增强区域创新能力和克服其"瓶颈"的政策建议.     

一种改进的电子商务网站综合评价方法

电子商务网站评价是衡量网站价值,分析网站优劣,指导网站建设的重要依据和方法.现有评价模式忽视了评价过程中的动态性、模糊性因素,存在很多缺点.本文提出的动态模糊综合评价法基于动态模糊理论,模拟评价指标的动态性和模糊性,采用多级动态模糊递归方式,减少人为因素的影响.评价结果可以反映评价目标的动态发展趋势,且可以指导网站质量改进.最后通过对某商务网站的综合评价验证了该方法的有效性和实用性.